Every year lamb and goat producers are faced with the difficult decision of when or at what weight to try to market their livestock. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service has been providing sheep and goat price and market analysis for a number of years, but the array of information can still be confusing. The price per pound for an animal will change depending on the size (weight) of the animal as well as the time of the year (seasonality) that it is being sold. While the per unit price ($/Lb.) of an animal tends to decrease as the weight of the animal increases, the gross value of the animal can still increase. The decision of when to sell becomes yet more difficult when the cost of feeding an animal to heavier weights (Cost of Gain) is also considered.
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service and the Information Technology (IT) Department at Angelo State University have collaborated to develop and introduce the Lamb and Goat Market Forecast App for mobile devices. This Application does not attempt to forecast prices, but instead estimates historical changes in the revenue per head for lambs and goats sold at progressively higher weights in one-month intervals. The App is free of charge and is intended to educate producers on the factors that impact the prices they receive on their livestock.
Get the App:
Download app from Apple App Store
Android App coming soon!
Navigating the App:
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On the Lamb & Goat Market Forecast homepage, you will first click either Lamb or Goat, depending on which animal you are intending to sell. For this example we will be using lambs, but the process is exactly the same for goats.
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After selecting Lamb or Goat on the home page, the next screen that appears will allow you to change the date of marketing (which generally occurs at weaning) and the weight at which you want to base your calculations. Do this by tapping on each of the options and scrolling until you find your desired month and weight. Once finished, click calculate. |
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The next page is the heart of this app. The application does not forecast price, but rather estimates the anticipated marginal revenue per head that a producer can expect from keeping and feeding the animals for another month or more. It is assumed that lambs will gain 15 pounds per month and kid goats will gain 10 pounds per month. Market data collected from Producers Livestock Auction Co. in San Angelo, TX dating back to 2010 is used to calculate the change in the per-head value based on month and weight gain. The app then applies a cost incurred for adding the additional weight (Cost of Gain). In general, cost of gain while on pasture can range $0.10 to $0.25 per pound, while the cost of gain in a feedlot can range from $0.75 to $1.00 per pound.
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The tool allows you to change your anticipated cost of gain by moving the slider left or right to see the effect on your estimated marginal revenue. The projected marginal revenue values are cumulative. In this example we weaned a lamb in May. The resulting output shows the additional revenue we could expect in June ($22.52/Hd.). In July we could expect a total of $37.57 per head of additional revenue. This includes the $22.52 from June.
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On the same calculation screen you can click on “Current Price” in the top right. This will show you the most recent average price of the weight that you have selected. These market prices are derived from sales at Producers Livestock in San Angelo, TX. |
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Finally, you can always click on the “About” button at the bottom right. This will access information to help you better understand, interpret and utilize the Lamb & Goat Market App.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:
The development of the mobile application would not have been possible without the significant contributions of:
Dr. Dan Waldron
Texas A&M AgriLife Research (Retired)
San Angelo, TX
Dr. Rob Hogan
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension
Uvalde, TX
PRIVACY POLICY:
Angelo State University/Texas A&M AgriLife Extension built the Lamb & Goat marketing application as a free app. This application is provided by Angelo State University/Texas A&M AgriLife Extension at no cost and is intended for use as is. This app does not use, collect or store any personal data. While using the app, a connection to the internet may be established for the express purpose of updating information to perform the app’s core functionality (predicting marginal revenue per head).
